Monday, December 25, 2006

最近对网络经济比较感兴趣

《网络经济下 GDP核算方法研究》看这篇文章不是因为它写的好,而是因为它写的不好,或者说我不认同里面的绝大多数观点。我认为它过大夸大了网络经济政正面的效果,比如边际收益不会递减啊,正的外部性和正反馈等等。虽然我没有有力的数据来反对他的观点,但是他也没有理由下这么强悍的结论啊。还有,他说在网络经济下,GDP的核算应该由产出变成消费,因为“网络经济更加侧重于考察信息的交流、消费, 即使组织了生产活动,也更可能是由消费来决定的,即需要消费什么,网上便组织生产什么”,这句话让我非常看不懂。我认为网络没有组织生产,消费者需要的不 是“information”,而是“real goods”,关于这一点克鲁格曼说的很好。网络是信息传递的手段,仅此而已。
“ First, for all the talk of an information economy, ultimately an economy must serve consumers -- and consumers don't want information, they want tangible goods. In particular, the billions of Third World families who finally began to have some purchasing power as the 20th century ended did not want to watch pretty graphics on the Internet -- they wanted to live in nice houses, drive cars, and eat meat. Second, the Information Revolution of the late 20th century was -- as everyone should have realized -- a spectacular but only partial success. Simple information processing became faster and cheaper than anyone had imagined possible; but the once confident Artificial Intelligence movement went from defeat to defeat. As Marvin Minsky, one of the movement's founders, despairingly remarked, "What people vaguely call common sense is actually more intricate than most of the technical expertise we admire". And it takes common sense to deal with the physical world -- which is why, even at the end of the 21st century, there are still no robot plumbers.”
马 克思说,资本主义之所以罪恶,是因为人与人之间的关系必须由物与物之间的关系来替代。也就是说,商品不能够直接被交换,而是需要货币作为中介,这就形成了 货币拜物教,是一种异化一种扭曲。人与人之间为什么不能直接产生关系?就是因为信息不对称,一头羊怎么样才能换来需要的斧头?在信息贫乏的时候显然是很难 达成这笔交易的,需要先换成货币,然后再用货币交换。但是如果我们有了互联网,有了强大的搜索工具,那么只要基数够大,就一定有人需要用斧头来换羊。或者 说,有了更加智能的网络,可以由计算机来分配我们的产品和收入。这就又涉及到了价值的问题,我们产出的产品的价值怎么计量呢,如果没有市场来定价的话。计 算机用什么来衡量商品的价值呢?又绕到了原点,看来我应该去睡觉了。

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

牛……看晕掉了……